Sales of drugs to treat age-related macular degeneration in the G7 pharmaceutical markets are set to grow 6% a year, reaching nearly $9 billion in 2023.
The forces combining to drive growth in the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Japan include increasing prevalence of AMD due to population aging, rising rates of polypharmacy and the anticipated uptake of the first agents for the treatment of geographic atrophy - the advanced dry form of AMD, reports PharmaTimes.
Following a projected launch in the second half of the 2013-23 forecast period, Roche/Genentech's lampalizumab will become the first agent approved for the treatment of geographic atrophy, and this clinical and commercial milestone will lead to the advent and rapid expansion of this market segment, says the report from Decision Resources.
It also expects lampazilumab to achieve blockbuster sales peaking beyond 2023, despite early competition from Acucela/Otsuka's geographic atrophy treatment emixustat hydrochloride, which is expected to launch shortly after lampalizumab.
With expected growth in diagnosis and prescription drug-treatment rates, and the assumption of premium pricing for emerging agents, the G7 market for geographic atrophy therapies is expected to cross the billion-dollar threshold within three years of the first launch.
Monotherapy with the current mainstay treatments for wet will continue to dominate wet AMD treatment. The 2018 launch of Ophthotech/Novartis' Fovista will formalise and substantially expand combination treatment for the disease, adding over $500 million to the AMD market in 2023.
The report also forecasts that biosimilar versions of wet AMD mainstay treatments due to launch in the second half of the forecast period will lead to moderate brand share erosion, while in the nearer term, efforts by some European governments to formally permit the off-label use of Avastin for wet AMD will temper the patient share of approved VEGF inhibitors.
